Commodities and the Global Macro Economic Picture for Traders
August 18th, 2009
While most people think of commodity traders as just a bunch of guys in Chicago the truth is that many different types of investors participate in the commodity markets. Obviously we have floor traders but we also have several types of upstairs traders.
The largest group of traders are definitely the upstairs trader, or traders that are not on the floor of the exchange. Some have floor experience while others do not. The largest group of these are systematic long term trend followers while there are smaller subsets that do purely fundamental and others a hybrid model.
Some global macro traders are always involved in the commodity markets while others don’t actually do a ton of trading. But one thing that all global macro funds do is track and forecast commodity prices. This is so that they have a better grip on raw materials cost as well as where on earth are things growing fast and slow. It basically gives a great picture of the macroeconomic landscape.
For instance if oil is rising like we saw in 2008 then you have to look to see what businesses are going to get hurt and what will benefit from higher oil prices. Obviously oil companies will make more money but what about shorting airlines? Or maybe even going long railroad companies. As you can tell there are endless ideas of who is affected and who is not.
Precious metals are another area of great concern. Long looked as a fantastic inflation gauge gold and silver are also looked upon more and more as alternative currencies since most fiat currencies are looking like junk these days. As you can see precious metals are very useful to key in on currencies and inflation.
Industrial metals are also a big deal as almost everything you buy or use has some type of metal in it. Copper for electrical wires, lead for batteries, aluminum for cans, etc. The list is virtually endless and between the MERC, the NYMEX, and the LME you can trade basically all of it. If you aren’t tracking industrial metals then you are not pricing out the number one cost for most manufacturing and industrial companies.
Agricultural commodities are the last major group of commodities and the ones that tend to get the shortest thrift. This is a mistake as the worlds economies continue to grow and more and more people become more prosperous they eat better and better. This coupled with the fact that there is less water on earth and you have the potential for a large increase in the price of food worldwide.
Obviously commodities are huge part of the global economy. If you are not using and monitoring them you are missing out on some of the biggest puzzle pieces out there. If you are a global macro trader you need to be monitoring all the commodity complexes.