Fundamental Trading Strategies (Part I)
May 23rd, 2009
While trading forex, you can use many strategies in developing your forex system. Some strategies are based on fundamental analysis and others are based on technical analysis. You can use fundamental trading strategies based on big macroeconomic events for swing trading that may last from a few weeks to a few months.
Short term forex traders and day traders try to focus only the economic news release of the week and how it will impact their day trading. This works well for many traders. Learn forex nitty gritty, a method based on only 20 minutes trading a day.
You should not lose sight of the big macroeconomic events that may be brewing in the economy or for that matter in world. Large scale macroeconomic events have the potential and ability of moving the currency markets big time for many months or even years.
The impact of big macroeconomic events have the potential to change the fundamental perception about a currency for months and even years what to talk of days. Events such as wars, political uncertainty, natural disaster and international meetings have widespread psychological and physical impact on the currency markets.
Therefore, by keeping on top of the global developments, understanding the underlying market sentiments before and after these global events and trying to anticipate them could be very profitable for you. At least it can help prevent significant losses in your currency trading.
What type of big events affects the currency markets in the long term, you may ask. G-8 Finance Minister meetings, Presidential and Parliamentary elections in big countries, important world summits, major central bank meetings, potential changes to the currency regimes, possible default by large countries, possible wars, FED Chairman semiannual testimony to the Congress. These are only a few examples of big events that make the currency markets jittery and may have a long term impact.
G-8 meetings also tend to leave a long lasting impact on the currency markets. Combined these eight countries account for the two third of the world GDP. So whatever decisions that are taken during these G-8 meetings usually leave a short term as well as a long term impact on the global forex markets.
For example, the USD collapsed after the September 2003, G-8 meeting in which the finance ministers wanted to see more flexibility in the exchange rates. This meeting was also important as the US Trade Deficit was ballooning.
EUR/USD bore the burnt of the dollar depreciation. China and Japan intervened aggressively to stabilize their currencies. USD had already begun to sell off leading up to the meeting. The trend continued for many months after the meeting.
So, the long term impact of these macroeconomic events is much more significant that the short term impact and the event itself have the ability to change the overall market sentiments for a long time.
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