The 14th Motilal Oswal Wealth Creation Study was held on 17th Dec -2009. Every year, Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal, Managing Director of Motilal Oswal Group, commissions an Annual Wealth Creation Study. The Motilal Oswal 14th Annual Wealth Creation Study (2004-09) is divided into three parts i.e. The Wealth Creation Study Findings, Wealth Creation Theme: Winner Categories + Category Winners = Formula for Wealth Creation in the NTD Era & Market Outlook.
Wealth created is a term which is calculated as change in the market cap of companies between 2003 and 2009, duly adjusted for corporate events such as mergers, fresh issuance of capital, de-mergers, buyback, etc. Wealth Creation Study findings is an analysis of the top 100 wealth creating companies during the period 2004-09.
Unitech was the Fastest Wealth Creator in FY09, for the second time in a row. Its 5-year stock price CAGR is a staggering 122%. Reliance Industries emerged as the biggest wealth creator for the third time in a row. It created 1514 billion RS worth of wealth contributing 15.6% of total wealth created in FY09. HDFC was ranked as the most consistent by virtue of its 10-year price CAGR being the highest. Five companies – HDFC, Sun Pharma, Reliance Inds, Hero Honda and Infosys – featured among the top 100 wealth creators in each of the last 10 years.
The theme for this year’s wealth creation study was A Winning Formula For Wealth Creation.
A combination of the category winners & the respective reasonable valuation was the formula used for the winning investments. The formula for category winners was the combination of the winner categories, the entry barriers & the great management. The formula for Winner Categories was the blend of Categories benefiting from India’s Next Trillion Dollar GDP opportunity & their Scalability. The most important recipe for the Wealth Creation Study was the combination of the Winner Categories & the Category Winners.
Winner Categories: India’s NTD Era will see a huge boom in consumption and savings/investment, which will throw up several Winner Categories i.e. those which grow at over 1.5x GDP growth rate, and are consolidated in nature. The study identifies 21 Winner Categories which are Finance – Credit rating, Finance – Housing, Engineering – Turnkey, Alcoholic beverages, Auto – 2 – wheelers, Finance – Credit rating, Auto – Cars & SUVs , Auto – Tractors, Capital Goods – Power equipment, Construction, , Finance -Banks & Private sector, Finance – Banks & Public sector, Finance – Brokerages, FMCG – Personal Care, FMCG – Processed Food, Gas distribution, Infrastructure, Insurance, Media – Entertainment , Real Estate, Retailing , Telecom.
Category Winners: These are companies from Winner Categories, which have great managements and high Entry Barriers. Great management is one which successfully defends or even increases Entry Barriers and manages growth at least in line with category. Entry Barriers is a simpler term for sustainable competitive advantage – The existence of barriers to entry means that incumbent firms are able to do what potential rivals cannot. Being able to do what rivals cannot is the definition of competitive advantage.
Winning investments: The category winner in Auto (2 wheelers) was Hero Honda, Auto (Cars & SUVs) was Maruti Suzuki, Auto (Cars & UVs/tractors) was Mahindra & Mahindra, Capital Goods (Power equipment) was BHEL. Category Winners are those that at reasonable (not necessarily cheap) valuation create significant wealth over the long term. The study constructs a model portfolio for the NTD Era, based on the above principles. This portfolio would have outperformed the markets if purchased any time during the last five years.
The category winner in Engineering (Turnkey) was Larsen and Toubro, Finance (Banks & Private Sector) was HDFC Bank, Finance (Banks & Public Sector) was SBI, Finance (Credit rating) was CRISIL, Finance (Housing) was HDFC, FMCG (Personal Care) was Dabur India, FMCG (Processed food) was Nestle India, Infrastructure was Mundra Port, Media (Entertainment) was Sun TV, Retailing was Pantaloon Retail & Telecom was Bharti Airtel.
To conclude, the NTD Era will be marked by sustained boom in discretionary spend, savings and investment. Winner Categories and Category Winners will enjoy exponential growth in profits. Category Winners bought at reasonable valuation will create significant wealth over the long term.
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