Risk To Reward Ratio Explained
June 6th, 2009
Risk is calculated by counting the pips between the forecasted entry price and the forecasted price at which you want to exit the market in case of a losing trade. A trader must view each trade as a business transaction.
Reward is calculated by counting the number of pips between the forecasted entry price and the forecasted price at which you would want to exit the market in case of a winning trade. Reward is the expected number of pips that you want to make in a trade.
In order to manage risk properly, you need to look for high probability trades that have a risk to reward ratio of 1:2 or higher. However, this depends on the time frame that you want to trade. For example, suppose you are a day trader. You are looking for making only 30 pips in a trade. A stop loss of 15 pips is sufficient for the risk to reward ratio of 1:2.
However, if you are a swing trader or a position trader with a longer time frame, your profit potential will be more. If you choose 200 pips as your expected profit then you will need to set your stop loss at 100 pips.
The reason that you need to set a higher stop loss is that on a larger time frame, small trends occur within the larger trend. Retracements on shorter time frame is much smaller as compared on the larger time frame. Your trade is going to be recycled. In order to be not stopped out, you need to calculate your risk to reward ratio appropriately.
Many traders agree that next to maximizing profits, the second most important thing for them is minimizing losses. A trading system that wins only 50% of the time on average can still be profitable. Most of the traders want to make money but don’t know how to protect what they currently have.
You have a 50/50 chance of the currency market going your way. It is just like flipping a coin. In case, the trade does not develop in your favor and the market is going against you, you should cut your losses by using stop losses. In simple terms, you cut your losses and let your winners run. This simple 50/50 trading strategy earns a profit even when a novice trader might experience a loss.
Consider different risk to reward ratios and how much you need to win to break even. For 2:1 risk to reward ratio, you need 67% winners just to break even. For a 1:1 risk to reward ratio, it means just 50% winners to break even. 1:2 ratio means only 33.5% winners. Never ever trade when the risk to reward ratio is more than 1:2.
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