Trading Decreased Volatility Breakout (Part III)
September 6th, 2009
Whether it is to the upside or the downside when you trade triangle breakouts ignore any first breakout attempts. Each triangle type has its own directional bias. Gather as much evidence as you can to support a particular breakout direction so as to minimize the risk of trading false breakouts. Get ready for a breakout when you have identified the triangle formation on either the daily or weekly chart. There can be three possible cases when you try to trade the decreased volatility breakout strategy.
Possibility No 1: You should not forget to ignore the first breakout. Suppose the second breakout attempt is in the upside direction for an ascending triangle and it is in the downside direction for the descending triangle. In other words, the second breakout attempt is in the direction expected of the triangle type. This breakout could signal either the continuation of the existing trend or the trend reversal.
For an ascending triangle make sure each side of the triangle gets touched two times at least. Place a stop buy order at least 10 pips above the horizontal resistance level to capture the potential upside breakout. Place a stop loss order 10 pips below the horizontal level of the triangle to protect against false breakout. Set profit target according to your time frame.
For a descending triangle, place a stop sell order 10 pips below the horizontal support level to capture the potential downside breakout. Place a stop loss order 10 pips above the horizontal support level. Again make sure the triangle is touched two times before the breakout.
Possibility No 2: The second breakout is in the downside in case of an ascending triangle and it is to the upside in case of the descending triangle. Again ignore the first breakout attempt. In other words, the second breakout attempt is in the opposite direction of the expected triangle type breakout direction.
In case of an ascending triangle, ignore the first breakout attempt and make sure the triangle is touched at least two times. Since the breakout direction is opposite to the most expected direction, cut the position size to half for this trade in order to reduce risk. Set stop sell order at least 10 pips below the upward sloping trendline in order to capture the expected downside breakout. Place the stop loss 10 pips below the breakout point.
Place a stop buy entry order at least 10 pips above the downward sloping trendline in order to capture the potential upside breakout in case of a descending triangle. Set your profit target in accordance with your time frame. Place stop loss 10 pips below the breaking point. Again reduce the position size to half in order to reduce risk.
Possibility No 3: There is an equal possibility of upside as well as the downside breakout in case of symmetrical triangles. Just follow the above guidelines and place stop buy entry order or the stop sell entry order 10 pips above the downward sloping trendline or 10 pips below the upward sloping trendline. Similarly set your stop loss orders. The decreased volatility breakout strategy works better when it is implemented on a daily or weekly chart. Dont use intraday charts on this strategy.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Develop your own Forex Trading System. Learn Forex Trading !